The state of the war with al Qaeda

Guardian:

The head of MI5 says today that the threat of an immediate attack in Britain by al-Qaida-inspired extremists has diminished because a string of successful prosecutions has had a "chilling" effect.

Jonathan Evans warns, however, that al-Qaida leaders still intend to mount an attack, and that there are individuals in Britain able to do so. In the first newspaper interview by a serving MI5 director general, Evans warns that:

• Israeli attacks on Gaza give extremists in Britain more ideological ammunition.

• The Afghan conflict and its outcome has a "direct impact" on UK domestic security.

• The international economic crisis could affect Britain's security.

• Dissident republican groups in Northern Ireland are a growing threat.

• Not getting access to emails and data on internet sites would be detrimental to national security.

Speaking on the centenary of the establishment of MI5, Evans said his agency believes "core-al Qaida", the leadership based on Pakistan's north-west frontier, retains a strategic interest in carrying out attacks in the UK, using British nationals or residents.

"There is a significant number of individuals in active sympathy," Evans said. He added: "They are doing things like fundraising, helping people to travel to Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia. Sometimes they provide equipment, support and propaganda."

However, MI5 does not believe al-Qaida has what he termed a "semi-autonomous structured hierarchy" in the UK. And: "We have probably seen fewer 'late-stage' attack plans over the last 18 months."

Evans pointed to 86 successful prosecutions in terror trials since January 2007. In more than half, the accused pleaded guilty: "That has had a chilling effect." However, while the networks might keep their heads down, they had not gone away. "There is enough intelligence to show they have the intention to mount an attack here," he said. And the period between first talk of a plot and its active planning could be just a few weeks.

...

I think the Predator strikes have had a bigger impact on al Qaeda than the lawfare cases in the UK. We have knocked out a significant chunk of the al Qaeda leadership and have got the remaining members keeping their heads below the weeds when they are brave enough to move around in Pakistan. Pakistan's efforts in the border area has also driven some of the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies into combat in Afghanistan where they have been suffering significant losses.

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