Friday, September 19, 2008

Palin effect pulling up Congressional Republicans



Washington Post:

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Volunteers began showing up at GOP campaign offices at quadruple the pre-convention pace, many of them conservatives who were lukewarm to presidential nominee John McCain but ecstatic about his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Their enthusiasm could be Dole's saving grace on Nov. 4.

"We have to move out of here and take on this fight big-time," Dole said at a GOP dinner in North Carolina earlier this month, acknowledging, "We're in a very tough cycle."

After months of fundraising doldrums, recruitment misfires and daunting polls, Republicans believe they are finally on the rebound in the battle for Congress. Both sides concede that the GOP stands almost no chance of taking back the House or Senate in November, but party leaders think the Palin factor and an increasingly competitive fight for the White House have generated enthusiasm and momentum that could limit GOP losses to only a few Senate seats and perhaps fewer than a dozen House seats.

As evidence of the jolt provided to the party base by the Republican convention and the selection of Palin, strategists point to recent polls showing a bounce in "generic" polling. In August, a USA Today-Gallup poll gave Democrats a 51 to 42 percent lead on the question of which party voters would support in a congressional election in their district. In the days after the GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn., ended earlier this month, Republicans had climbed to a 50 to 45 percent advantage.

Republicans are especially bullish about the changing Senate landscape. Democrats have never envisioned an easy path to a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority, but polls suggest that prospect has been reduced to a near impossibility in recent weeks.

Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign has pulled out of Georgia, probably a fatal blow to former state representative Jim Martin in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Another long shot, state Rep. Rick Noriega in Texas, has been outraised 9 to 1 by Republican Sen. John Cornyn. State Sen. Andrew Rice is not showing significant gains against GOP Sen. James M. Inhofe in Oklahoma, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins appears to be holding firm in Maine, where she faces Rep. Tom Allen.

"Sarah Palin definitely gave a boost, no question" said Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "In races where we were way down, a lot of those races are even. In some of the races that were even, we are up." And public polls do not tell the full story, Ensign argued. He said internal data show a decisive shift among likely Republican voters who appear ready to turn out in droves on Election Day in states across the board.

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I think Inhof and Cornyn are locks for reelection. Obama is losing Oklahoma by a two to one margin. that has to be a drag on other Democrats on the ticket. Cornyn's opponent has not been able to get traction on any issue, and Cornyn has run a good well financed campaign. It also helps that he is one of the best Senators in Washington. He is smart and effective.

While Democrats may still be favored to hold Congress they should not be. The energy bill is an example of how they want to fool the voters rather than reflect what voters want. With 75 percent of the country wanting to expand drilling teh Demcorats are prohibiting it in 87 percent of the most likely locations. the Democrats were dead wrong on teh war in Iraq and voted over 60 times for defeat wheile we were winning. The Demcorats want to raise taxes and grow the government and 60 percent of voters oppose this. It makes you wonder jsut why Democrats are favored.

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