The Louisiana Landrieu race

Jeff Crouerre:

Why is U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D-La.) running away from Democratic Presidential Candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)? There’s no denying the fact that she is. Landrieu -- who was listed as a sponsor in the invitation to an August Obama event in Washington -- had her name removed.

Has the possibility of a reverse-coattails effect from the Obama campaign caused this level of fear among Democrats?

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Now, Landrieu faces Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy in another close re-election battle. Most polls indicate a tight race with Landrieu slightly ahead, although one recent poll gave Landrieu a double digit lead. By the time November arrives, most political analysts believe this will be a very close election.

Both political parties have targeted Louisiana. Republicans believe Landrieu is the most vulnerable Democrat in the U.S. Senate and want to score a coveted victory in a year in which they will probably lose many congressional races. Of course, Democrats want to retain the seat and possibly build a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

An incumbent U.S. Senator with seniority who has a relatively centrist voting record should be a strong favorite for re-election. Landrieu has tried to follow the formula used by former Louisiana Sen. John Breaux, who was politically invincible. Why hasn’t it worked for Landrieu?

What has complicated matters for the incumbent is that the population displacement from Hurricane Katrina has removed thousands of Democratic voters from the state. In this election, Landrieu must earn the votes of Independents and Republicans who have not cast a vote for her previously.

Kennedy’s best chance for victory may be to tie Landrieu to Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who trails his Republican opponent John McCain by 16 points in the latest poll of Louisiana voters. In fact, the state is so securely in McCain’s corner that Obama will probably not even campaign there in the fall. While Landrieu wants to benefit from the strong turnout of African Americans going to the polls to support Obama, she does not want to turn off moderate or conservative white voters who will be supporting McCain. It is a tough political tightrope that she will have to walk.

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I am surprised that Landrieu is doing so well in this race. With the election of Jindal and the obvious problem with Democrats and their opposition to energy which is important to Louisiana it does not make any sense for Louisian to support Landreiu.

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