Tuesday, November 11, 2008

A look at the figures from the CNN exit poll



CNN has some exit poll figures on its website . Obviously, these don't necessarily reflect how the US electorate as a whole voted, but it does reflect what the sample told the pollsters when they left the polling station.

Obama had a lead among male and female voters. But, among male voters, he was at 49% to McCain's 48%. Among female voters, he won 56% to McCain's 43%. The difference between the voting behaviour of men and women in the US appears to be greater than in the UK - and in a different direction to the voting gap in some other countries [where men are more likely to support the left than women]. More women than men supporting the Democrats has been a feature of US politics since about 1980.

Obama won 43% support among white voters. People were concerned that Obama would not be able to win over many white voters because of subconscious racial prejudice. This does not appear to be the case. Almost half of them voted for him. Obama got 95% of the black vote. There was talk that there might be record high black turnout for the first presidential election with a major-party black candidate. They made up 13% of voters - slightly higher than their 12% of the general population.

Obama won 66% of the Latino vote and 61% of the Asian vote. And 65% of the 3% of voters who didn't put themselves in either of the 4 ethnic categories used by CNN also voted for Obama. Thus, every ethnic group other than white Americans gave him majority support.

In terms of voting behaviour by age, Obama picked up the youth vote. He got 66% of the under-30s and 52% of the 30-44 year olds. He tied with McCain (49% each) with the 45-64 year olds. He lost the over-65s, with 45% to McCain's 53%. McCain thus had a clear lead among his own age group.

When CNN cross-tabulates by age and race, it can be seen that 54% of whites under 30 voted for Obama. His support among white voters is thus concentrated in the younger groups. Older white voters gave majority support to McCain.

Obama got 73% support among voters earning less than $15,000. He also got support among voters in the next two lowest income brackets. However, voters earning $50-75,000 backed McCain narrowly - 49% to 48% according to the exit poll. For the category $75-100,000, though, Obama regains his lead. He got 51% of that group to vote for him. The next couple of income brackets - which are now much above median income - backed McCain. But, intreiguingly, the top income bracket ($200,000 or more) which 6% of voters put themselves in - backed Obama 52% to 46%.

There is also a categorisation of voters by education - depending on whether they have no High School, have graduated High School, have some college education or are graduates or postgraduates. Obama won all categories. His margin was greatest among those with no high school and 2nd greatest among those with a postgraduate degree - i.e. at either end of the qualifications scale.

Obama won a clear majority of those whose party identification is independent. He got 52% to McCain's 44%. Any candidate wanting to win an election needs to do well in that category.

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